XRP
price
has
remained
under
pressure
since
the
beginning
of
2026,
extending
a
steady
downtrend
that
started
in
early
January.
The
altcoin
has
repeatedly
failed
to
reclaim
major
resistance
levels.
Weak
macro
sentiment
and
geopolitical
tensions
have
limited
upside
momentum
across
the
broader
crypto
market.
Despite
the
ongoing
decline,
several
historical
and
on-chain
indicators
suggest
XRP
may
be
approaching
a
turning
point.
Sponsored
Sponsored
XRP
Holders’
Losses
Near
End
The
Net
Unrealized
Profit
and
Loss
indicator
showsXRP
remains
in
capitulation
territory.
This
phase
reflects
that
a
majority
of
holders
are
sitting
on
unrealized
losses.
Capitulation
typically
marks
the
late
stage
of
a
downtrend
rather
than
the
beginning.
Historically,
XRP’s
capitulation
phases
have
lasted
close
to
one
month
before
reversing.
The
current
stretch
began
at
the
start
of
February.
If
prior
patterns
repeat,
this
period
could
end
for
the
XRP
price
in
the
first
week
of
March.
A
reduction
in
panic-driven
selling
would
allow
price
stabilization
and
open
the
door
to
recovery.
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XRP
NUPL.
Source:GlassnodeThe
Spent
Output
Profit
Ratio,
or
SOPR,
confirms
that
manyXRP
holders
are
stillselling
at
a
loss.
A
brief
move
above
1
occurred
in
mid-February,
signaling
temporary
profitability.
However,
the
metric
quickly
fell
back
below
1,
showing
renewed
selling
pressure.
Sponsored
Sponsored
SOPR
approaching
the
1
level
again
is
significant.
A
sustained
move
above
this
threshold
would
indicate
that
coins
are
being
sold
at
a
profit.
Historically,
this
shift
often
coincides
with
early
recovery
phases.
If
selling
continues
to
saturate,
the
XRP
price
may
gain
room
to
rebound.
XRP
SOPR.
Source:GlassnodeWhat
Does
XRP’s
Past
Say?
Seasonality
data
shows
that
over
the
past
12
years,
March
has
delivered
an
average
18%return
for
XRP.
This
makes
it
statistically
the
strongest
month
in
the
first
quarter.
While
past
performance
does
not
guarantee
future
gains,
historical
trends
matter.
However,
external
risks
remain.
Escalating
geopolitical
tensions
involving
the
US
and
Israel
could
affect
risk
appetite.
Broader
financial
instability
may
delay
seasonal
bullish
tendencies.
XRP
Monthly
Returns.
Source:CryptoRankXRP
Price
Levels
To
Watch
XRP
is
trading
at
$1.29
at
the
time
of
writing,
holding
above
the
critical
$1.27
support
level.
This
level
aligns
with
the
23.6%
Fibonacci
retracement,
often
referred
to
as
the
bear
market
support
floor.
Maintaining
this
threshold
is
essential
to
prevent
a
deeper
correction.
If
capitulation
ends
and
macro
conditions
stabilize,XRP
could
bouncefrom
$1.27
and
challenge
the
descending
trendline
active
since
January.
A
move
above
$1.51
would
confirm
a
structural
shift.
This
level
also
coincides
with
the
61.8%
Fibonacci
retracement,
a
key
recovery
benchmark.
XRP
Price
Analysis.
Source:TradingViewOn-chain
data
suggests
limited
resistance
until
the
$1.76
to
$1.80
range.
Approximately
1.85
billionXRP
were
accumulatedwithin
this
zone,
valued
at
nearly
$2.83
billion.
Holders
who
bought
there
may
sell
to
break
even,
creating
temporary
resistance.
XRP
CBD
Heatmap.
Source:GlassnodeHowever,
failure
to
hold
$1.27
would
invalidate
the
bullish
outlook.
A
breakdown
below
the
bear
market
support
floor
could
send
XRP
toward
$1.11.
Continued
sideways
consolidation
remains
possible
if
global
uncertainty
persists.
For
now,
March
presents
both
risk
and
opportunity
for
XRP
price
recovery.